The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has escalated tensions in the Persian Gulf, jeopardizing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Iran and the United States. This follows IRGC strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint, which have triggered a decline in Iranian markets.
The MoU, part of a ceasefire agreement signed on June 17, 2026, aimed to stabilize the region following the Iran-United States war. Recent military actions, including strikes on U.S. positions and retaliatory attacks, threaten to undermine ongoing negotiations for a final peace deal and could reignite conflict.
Market pricing reflects the increased instability. The likelihood of Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by July 15 is currently priced at just 12.5% YES. The news has not yet influenced market perceptions regarding Mojtaba Khamenei’s potential departure from Iran, which remains at 0.4% YES.
Observers are monitoring for official statements from the IRGC or the US State Department. Evidence of increased commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could signal a shift towards resolution, while further military engagements or blockades would indicate continued tension.