A major new analysis using UK Biobank data reveals that personal cancer risk varies significantly, suggesting current screening methods based on age and sex may miss high-risk individuals.
The study projected lifetime and 10-year cancer risk across the population, incorporating 118 distinct variables across 38 cancer models. Results showed a median lifetime risk of 29.5% for men and 21.0% for women.
Researchers found that adjusting modifiable risk factors to an ideal state could reduce median lifetime risk to 20.5% for men and 16.5% for women, underscoring the power of behavioral change.
Crucially, the analysis identified significant overlap in 10-year risk between age groups. For example, men aged 50-59 at the 90th percentile had a higher 10-year risk (11.9%) than men aged 60-70 at the 25th percentile (11.8%). Similar patterns were seen in women.
The authors argue that future screening guidelines should incorporate individualized risk models to better target high-risk younger individuals, moving beyond age and sex alone.