A new study in Nature maps the 'velocity' of obesity across 200 countries, exposing a growing chasm between where demand is highest and where treatments are available.
Led by Majid Ezzati of Imperial College London, the research tracked height and weight data from 232 million people between 1980 and 2024. Results show obesity rates plateauing or declining in many wealthy Western nations, but accelerating faster than ever in Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and Pacific Island nations.
The disconnect is stark: the GLP-1 drug market, currently valued at $8 billion annually, is projected to reach $65 billion by 2035. Yet access remains concentrated in North America and Europe-regions where obesity rates are leveling off. J.P. Morgan estimates global GLP-1 penetration at only 2% of the obese population.
A potential turning point arrives in 2026, when semaglutide patents expire in Brazil, China, India, and Turkey-countries representing 40% of the global population. Generic injectable semaglutide could then be produced for as little as $28 per person per year. However, cold-chain requirements may still limit deployment. Oral formulations from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly aim to remove that barrier.
The WHO calls this 'a profound equity dilemma at the very heart of global public health.'