An urban planning expert is warning that Toronto's transportation network could collapse during the FIFA World Cup if spectators do not overwhelmingly rely on public transit.
Jeff Casello, professor at the University of Waterloo, says the city's plan assumes 70% of fans--roughly 25,000 people per match--will use transit. "If we start to think about any number less than that, the city really may just collapse on itself," he said.
Data from Geotab ranks Toronto dead last among 16 host cities in transportation preparedness. The city averages 28 minutes to drive just 10 kilometers, according to the TomTom traffic index, and officials expect a 10% to 15% increase in congestion during the six games.
Casello notes that while many drivers will initially try to bring their cars, the resulting gridlock will quickly push them to transit. He points to the airport-to-downtown trip on the UP Express, which takes 30 minutes--a trip impossible by car during peak times.
The TTC and Metrolinx are boosting service, adding 600 transit ambassadors, and extending subway hours until 1:30 a.m. However, recent on-time performance data shows Line 1 and Line 2 at 83%-84% reliability, dropping to 56% for streetcars. Casello warns that overcrowding will force fans to wait for multiple trains, creating safety concerns similar to missteps seen during last summer's World Series games.