Polymarket
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financeTrump: Fed Rate Cuts Tied to End of Iran Conflict
Donald Trump signals the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts until the U.S.-Israel-Iran war ends, impacting market expectations for 2026.
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cryptoPolymarket Investigated for $800M Oil Bets Tied to Insider Trading
US CFTC probes Polymarket over allegations traders used insider info on military actions to win oil price bets.
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financeGold Steadies on Fed Rate Hike Bets, Oil Climbs on Hormuz Risks
Gold flat as markets price in Fed rate hikes; oil rallies on potential Strait of Hormuz closure.
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cryptoClaude's 68% Win Rate on Polymarket: AI Trader or Faked Stats?
Anthropic's Claude is being used as a prediction market bot, claiming up to 68.4% success. But evidence of fabrication raises red flags.
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worldHezbollah Drone Strike on Israeli Tank Breaches Ceasefire
Hezbollah's drone strike on an Israeli tank in southern Lebanon signals escalating conflict, impacting ceasefire and withdrawal prediction markets.
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worldTrump Weighs Iran Strikes as Israel Braces for Escalation
Reports of potential US military action against Iran drive down market odds of a peace deal by June 30, signaling heightened regional tensions.
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worldUS Army Helicopter Monitors Ships Amid Strait of Hormuz Blockade Enforcement
A US Army helicopter was observed monitoring commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz as the US enforces a maritime blockade, redirecting 78 ships and disabling four.
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financePowell Named Interim Fed Chair Ahead of Warsh Swearing-In
Jerome Powell appointed acting Fed Chair after Senate confirms Kevin Warsh. Transition timeline nearly certain per prediction markets.