Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has accused the United States of creating insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions that have disrupted global oil shipments. The Trump administration is weighing a proposal from Tehran to lift the naval blockade, but demands regarding Iran's uranium stockpile have stalled negotiations.
Prediction markets reflect rising skepticism: the probability of the US lifting the blockade by May 31 now stands at 40.5%, down from 44% the previous day. The chance of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 has slipped to 29%. Analysts expect further volatility as military postures shift and international mediators, including Pakistan and Oman, seek to facilitate dialogue.