Iran has ordered ships to turn back in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating the 2026 Iran-US naval conflict. The move effectively closes the critical waterway, which normally handles about one-fifth of the world’s crude oil shipments.
The directive follows a U.S. naval blockade and Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon, and comes despite a ceasefire and memorandum of understanding reached earlier in June. The breakdown in diplomacy and the new restrictions threaten global energy security.
Prediction market confidence in normalized shipping lanes by mid-June has collapsed to just 7%, reflecting sharply heightened geopolitical risk and potential for further supply disruptions.