Despite weak La Niña conditions early in 2026, the first three months ranked as the fourth warmest on record, with Arctic sea ice at historic lows.
Scientists now anticipate a strong El Niño event by early autumn, potentially making 2026 the second-warmest year recorded, with a 19% chance of exceeding 2024's record.
A 'super' El Niño, defined by sea surface temperatures exceeding 2°C above normal in the Niño3.4 region, is projected with a median estimate of 2.2°C warming by September. This phenomenon significantly influences global weather patterns, capable of causing droughts and floods.
New research from the University of Hawai'i at Mānoa suggests a novel method for predicting El Niño and La Niña up to 15 months in advance, using historical ocean temperature and height data, bypassing complex climate models. This empirical model has successfully predicted past El Niño events, offering crucial early warnings for global communities and resource managers.