The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecast a moderate to strong El Niño that could drive up global temperatures and increase extreme weather risks over the coming months. El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically lasting between nine and 12 months.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said, “We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event-which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean.”
The most recent El Niño, in 2023-2024, contributed to 2024 being the hottest year on record. Sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific have risen rapidly since late April, with subsurface temperatures exceeding 6°C above average in some areas.
El Niño is known to disrupt regional climates, bringing increased rainfall to southern South America, the southern United States, parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia, while causing drought in Australia, central America, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia. It can also fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged a shift away from fossil fuels, stating, “The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.”
While climate change is not shown to increase the frequency or intensity of El Niño, it can worsen associated impacts like extreme heatwaves and heavy rainfall. The WMO said the event is likely to continue until November.