A new modeling study warns that rising temperatures and an aging population could more than triple the cardiovascular disease burden in the United States by 2050.
Researchers analyzed county-level data from 3,108 counties across the contiguous U.S. Under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, the heat-attributable burden of heart disease is projected to jump from 138.5 disability-adjusted life-years per 100,000 people to 418.2 by mid-century. That translates to an estimated 50,000 to 70,000 additional cardiovascular deaths each year.
Demographic aging alone could add another 34% to the CVD burden by 2050, regardless of temperature changes. Older adults are especially vulnerable due to reduced ability to regulate body temperature and higher rates of chronic illness.
The study also found stark economic disparities. Middle- and low-income counties saw roughly twice the relative increase in heat-related heart disease compared to high-income counties. Factors like access to cooling, housing quality, and healthcare availability are likely contributing.
Researchers say heat mitigation strategies should become a central part of cardiovascular disease prevention, particularly for aging populations and economically vulnerable communities.
The findings were published in JAMA Cardiology.