Polymarket
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worldIran Escalation Crushes US Ceasefire Odds to 1%
Iran's military strikes reduce US-Iran ceasefire probability to just 1% by April 7, as predictive markets show dramatic pessimism
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cryptoLaLiga Partners with Polymarket in U.S., Canada
Spanish soccer league LaLiga becomes first in Europe to collaborate with Polymarket, offering exclusive fan engagement through prediction markets.
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worldCeasefire Odds Drop Below 2% as Iran-Israel Tensions Escalate
Polymarket data shows ceasefire odds plummet to 1.8% for April 7 as Iran continues missile attacks despite US-Israel Operation Epic Fury.
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worldCeasefire Odds Plunge Amid US-Israel Strikes and Iran Threats
U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, coupled with threats against the UAE, have significantly reduced market expectations for a ceasefire by April 7.
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techCFTC Files Federal Suits Against Illinois, Connecticut, Arizona Over Prediction Market Regulation
The CFTC and DOJ sued three states to assert exclusive federal jurisdiction over prediction markets, challenging state-level crackdowns on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
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cryptoColonel MacGregor: Iran Defends Against Ground Invasion
Colonel MacGregor warns of high costs of a ground war, reducing ceasefire odds to 8% by April 7.
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worldIran Foreign Minister Attacked, Wife Killed
Iran's foreign minister critically injured in assassination attempt at home, wife killed. Market odds of regime fall drop to 10%.
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cryptoIran Claims Downed U.S. Jet Amid Escalating Tensions
U.S. forces entering Iran by April 30 rises to 60.5% as markets react to Iran's unverified claim.